The end of the recession two years ago did
nothing to halt the loss of jobs in Ohio.
The state had
131,000 fewer jobs last month than it did two years earlier when
economists say the latest recession ended. Worse, many of those lost
jobs were in the high-paying manufacturing sector.
And it
appears that the Toledo metropolitan area lost more than 16,000 jobs
during that period - the city itself has 8,000 fewer jobs - and even
some outlying northwest Ohio counties have taken sizable job hits in
the 24-month period since the recession was declared
over.
"This recovery has been very disappointing ... but I
think this is the face of the business cycle of the future," said
James Coons, an economist and principal of J.W. Advisors LLC in
Columbus.
"Employers are quick to lay off and scale back
production when the downturn comes and they’re very careful about
adding to the head count when the turnaround comes."
Federal
Reserve economists have noted, however, that the job recovery from
the latest recession has been very different from those of past
recessions. As of about two months ago, a Cleveland Fed economics
researcher maintained that the economy generally was still
experiencing job losses, unheard of in a period so long past the end
of any prior recession.
Amy Hanauer, executive director of
Policy Matters Ohio in Cleveland, said, "Ohio is doing as badly as
any other state and worse than almost all of them." Her nonprofit
group, which has a pro-labor leaning, blames the Bush administration
for not improving the economy.
The majority of jobs lost in
Ohio in the last two years, 80,000 of them, were in the
manufacturing industry, according to Policy Matters Ohio and the
Economic Policy Institute in Washington. Since November, 2000, about
four months before federal economists determined the latest
recession began, Ohio has lost 176,400 manufacturing jobs, or more
than one in six of such positions, Policy Matters Ohio
said.
The state has 5.5 million jobs now, government figures
show.
The overall state employment figures are compiled from
employer payroll figures by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and
the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. The state agency
also conducts a household survey to compile its monthly unemployment
figures and generates separate job numbers for the state and its
counties, cities, and metropolitan areas. The two surveys do not
provide identical job numbers.
Still, state figures show
Seneca County had 2,400 fewer jobs last month than it did two years
earlier when the recession ended; Huron County had 1,200 fewer; and
Williams County had 1,000 fewer. The city of Bowling Green had 900
fewer jobs and Wood County had 3,400 fewer. In most cases, the
jobless rate for those places was higher last month than it was two
years earlier.
Economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView
Economics in suburban Cleveland, said, "This has been a very
disappointing recovery by any measure in terms of job
generation."
A lot of companies put major decisions on hold
last year until the Iraq situation was sorted out and have been
reluctant to hire new people and increase production, he
explained.
Still, he said he is optimistic about a strong
upturn in the economy and thus that a major labor recovery is
coming.
"We just have to add bodies to get the work done to
produce all those goods and services," he said. "We need to add
people to payrolls, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see nationwide
up to 200,000 jobs per month."
Other economists disagree,
however. Some question whether some of the manufacturing jobs will
ever return.
Nationwide, the number of workers employed last
month was more than 138.6 million, up 3 percent from November, 2001,
when the National Bureau of Economic Research determined the
recession officially ended. A few northwest Ohio counties - notably
Erie and Sandusky, as well as Henry and Ottawa - also showed some
job growth from November two years ago to last month.
