The takeaway: Benchmark data shows that Ohioans were right in their frustration with the labor market this past year. While Ohio has fully recovered the number of jobs lost during the COVID-19 pandemic, job growth has remained relatively stagnant. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in January, and we can expect further job loss as Trump administration layoffs and tariffs come to fruition.
The benchmark: Data released today by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services (ODJFS) confirm that Ohio recovered jobs lost after April 2020 (4,732,200), the month with the most jobs lost after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The data come from an annual benchmark revision to the Current Employment Statistics, a survey of businesses released each month to track the job market.
Initial estimates for the year showed greater growth than occurred in reality, with the latter half of the year not being nearly as successful as the first three months. Job growth remained stagnant for the most part from June through December, varying only by 2,300 instead of the initially estimated 17,200.
“The benchmark data highlights the importance of re-examining Ohio’s labor market history,” said Policy Matters researcher Heather Smith. “Ohioans have not been feeling the reported growth, and this data demonstrates why.”
The January numbers: Revisions to December’s initial estimates show that growth was not as strong as reported, with 36,900 jobs less than expected. This was concentrated primarily in the private service providing sector, with the biggest loss from the Administrative, support, and waste services (-21,100) and Local government (-10,900) industries.
Between December and January, Ohio lost 2,800 jobs in the private sector overall. Mining and Logging (-100) took a hit, losing 1.11% of its workforce. Arts, entertainment and recreation (-1,700) also lost a substantial percentage of their workforce (1.94%). Retail trade, which includes grocery stores, saw an increase of 400 jobs between December and January; we will continue watching this industry as Trump administration tariffs are implemented.
The household survey: The separate household survey showed Ohio’s unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 points to 4.6% in January. Five thousand Ohioans joined the workforce to accept or seek a job, but the number who held jobs fell by 2,000, increasing the number of unemployed Ohioans by 6,000 to 271,000 people. Compared to a year ago, 110,000 more Ohioans were working age, and the workforce participation rate rose 1 point to 62.4%.
“There is ample uncertainty in the future labor market for Ohioans. With unprecedented layoffs in the public sector and retaliatory tariffs impacting every industry, Ohio workers should brace themselves for impending inflationary prices,” said Smith. “Ohio policymakers need to take steps to ease cost burdens on families and create high-quality, well-paying jobs.”