Where does the data for JobWatch come from?
Policy Matters’ JobWatch data comes from the Ohio Dept. of Job and Family Services’ (ODJFS) Ohio Labor Market Information resources, in particular the Ohio and U.S. Employment Situation data and Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment Estimates. ODJFS releases these data monthly, derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ State Employment and Unemployment data.
Why is this data important?
The BLS has historically been independent from political influence, offering a high degree of transparency and objectivity, using sound methodology to establish public trust in the reliability of its data products. Data from the BLS jobs report, used to estimate state-level employment trends, offer insight into current economic conditions in Ohio. The BLS also regularly produces data for other key economic indicators, like inflation and prices, pay and benefits, and consumer spending. Together, these data equip analysts with a more comprehensive understanding of the national and statewide economic landscape.
In addition to employment data, JobWatch also uses other key indicators drawn from BLS data to provide a more comprehensive view of the conditions underpinning Ohio’s labor market. For example, we may reference the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to suggest how rising prices could impact Ohioans experiencing long periods of unemployment and recommend policy options to support Ohio’s working families facing economic uncertainty.
Delays in BLS data releases coincide with a pivotal moment for the national economy, when data trends were just beginning to reinforce economists’ warnings of a looming recession. The absence of up-to-date data on critical economic indicators obscures the public’s – and policymakers’ – understanding of the rapidly-evolving economic landscape across the U.S. Ohio has already been facing increasing uncertainty due to the volatile federal policy landscape, largely characterized by the administration’s mass deportation campaign, sweeping federal layoffs, and tariff turbulence.
How does the state construct the data?
BLS constructs State Employment and Unemployment data using Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) data.
BLS polls a sample of establishments monthly on employment, payroll, and paid hours via the CES survey. Participation in the survey is voluntary in most states, though some states – including Ohio – mandate participation. These data go through a series of statistical adjustments to create usable data available to the public. Approximately 23,000 Ohio employers are included in the survey, results of which are used for the Ohio Labor Market Information’s release Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment Estimates.
Local Area Unemployment Statistics data is compiled by states from several data sources, including CES, the Current Population Survey, Census Bureau, and Unemployment Insurance data. The BLS has standardized methodology to create LAUS data, which all state labor agencies use to develop their LAUS estimates. Unlike the CES survey, LAUS data is comprised of a diversity of inputs and not solely reliant on self-conducted surveys. These data are what make up the monthly Ohio and U.S. Employment Situation.
Is there an alternative data source?
ADP, a private payroll company, releases a monthly national employment report for private sector jobs, though there are a variety of limitations. ADP only provides estimates for private sector employment, so there is no comparable data source to help us understand changing trends in public sector employment. This is particularly important as the Trump administration advances mass layoffs across federal agencies. While these layoffs create uncertainty for federal employees and their families, they also have severe implications for state and local governments that rely on federal support, destabilizing communities left without access to critical public programs and services.
ODJFS also provides monthly reports on statewide unemployment claims. Though not an exact substitute, ODJFS data can offer useful, current information about Ohio’s labor market in the absence of BLS data. The Ohio Office of Budget and Management also releases monthly financial reports that offer information on the economic outlook in Ohio, though these reports lean heavily on federal data sources.
What do we know now?
Unemployment insurance claims data from the week of September 28 through October 4 reports 5,159 initial unemployment claims, 677 more than the previous week. This could suggest more Ohioans are feeling the impact of federal layoffs. We may see this number continue to increase as furloughed federal employees file claims while the government is shut down.
Meanwhile, ADP reported 32,000 jobs lost in the private sector in September nationally – the second month in a row the private payroll company has reported job loss. This includes 5,000 fewer jobs in construction and 2,000 fewer jobs in manufacturing across the country. Large establishments added 33,000 jobs in September, however the losses in small- and mid-sized establishments more than offset those gains.
Without BLS data, policymakers and the public will have an incomplete understanding of how economic conditions change month-to-month. Less reliable sources can offer some guidance in the meantime. Policy Matters will continue to monitor available economic indicators.