Unemployment dips below U.S. rate
Today, the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, in partnership with the Department of Labor, released job and unemployment indicators for November. This report was delayed because the federal government shutdown led to a lapse in BLS data releases.
The takeaway: Ohio saw substantial job losses between September and November. Meanwhile, the gap between Ohio’s unemployment rate and the national rate closed for the first time since October of 2023, as Ohio’s rate fell to 4.5%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the U.S. rate. The concurrent increase in employment and decrease in unemployment led to the decline in Ohio’s unemployment rate. However, Ohio’s shrinking labor force accounted for a third of the decrease in the number of unemployed Ohioans in November, continuing the downward trend observed in Ohio’s labor force participation rate since June. The jobs report comprises data from two separate surveys, which often move in opposite directions and are subject to revision. Since it’s not uncommon for the separate surveys to produce conflicting economic data, it remains important to monitor these trends over time to avoid assigning undue weight to month-to-month changes.
Inflation cooled unexpectedly, down 0.3 percentage points from 3.0% in September to 2.7% in November. Though the decrease in inflation may relieve some of the price pressures experienced by Ohio’s working families in the near term, November’s jobs report offers mixed signals, reinforcing ongoing economic uncertainty.
The numbers: Seasonally adjusted data released today by the ODJFS show that Ohio employers shed 18,500 jobs between September and November, down from 5,723,800 in September to 5,705,300 in November.
Service providers drove November’s private sector losses (-19,100), slightly offset by gains in goods producing jobs (+7,300), while public sector employment fell by 6,700. Manufacturers added 5,300 jobs (+4,200 in durable goods and +1,100 in nondurable goods manufacturing jobs), with modest gains in construction jobs (+1,900) and small gains in mining and logging jobs (+100). The trade, transportation, and utilities sector saw the largest losses (-9,200), followed by the leisure and hospitality sector (-5,500). The remaining sectors within the service industry saw small to moderate losses, including financial activities (-3,000) and professional and business services (-1,300).
“Employment in service-providing sectors decreased across the board, with losses concentrated in the leisure and hospitality and the trade, transportation, and utilities sectors,” said Molly Bryden, researcher with Policy Matters Ohio. “Steep losses in trade, transportation, and utilities jobs may signal deeper economic challenges with ripple effects into other sectors, potentially indicating supply chain disruptions due to tariff turbulence and stubborn inflation. The leisure and hospitality sector continued to weaken, reinforcing financial insecurity among Ohio’s lower-paid workers, along with broader economic concerns demonstrated by declining consumer confidence in the economy. It will take several more months of data to know if this a trend or a post-shutdown blip.”
The decrease in federal government jobs – representing the smallest share of public sector employment – drove public sector losses (-3,900), while state government employment fell by 900 and local government by 1,900.
“The sharp drop in federal government employment shows how the government shutdown destabilized Ohio’s federal workforce,” said Bryden.
The household survey: The separate household survey shows that the number of unemployed Ohioans dropped by 18,000 between September and November, while 12,000 Ohioans gained employment and 6,000 Ohioans exited the labor force. As a result, Ohio’s unemployment rate ticked down 0.3 percentage points to 4.5% as the U.S. rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, falling below the national rate for the first time since October of 2023. Ohio’s labor force participation rate fell to 62.3% (-0.1 percentage points), lagging the national rate of 62.5%.
“The number of employed Ohioans increased for the first time since April of 2025, following a period of consecutive losses in employment, coupled with a drop in unemployment,” said Bryden. “The number of Ohioans who left the labor force did not fully account for falling unemployment levels, a reversal from trends seen in previous months. Although Ohio’s labor force continued to shrink in November, recent contractions in the labor force (-26,000 from May to November) haven’t offset growth observed earlier in 2025 (+46,000 from December 2024 to May 2025).
“The decrease in Ohio’s unemployment rate, corresponding with an increase in employment and decrease in unemployment, is a positive sign,” said Bryden. “This improvement, however, is accompanied by mixed signals that may indicate underlying concerns. Ohio’s labor force participation rate has been weakening since June. The continued decline in labor force participation – along with the slowdown in job growth indicated by the business establishment survey – could signal ongoing economic challenges. Amid unprecedented economic uncertainty, the resilience of Ohio’s economy hinges on robust investments in supportive services for working Ohioans – like childcare, public transit, and apprenticeship training pathways – to draw Ohioans back into the labor force.”